Nature's Balance: Competing Opposites
The concept of a natural balance in nature is easy to understand and invaluable for strategic thinking. There are two other articles on this site, one on Emptiness and Fullness, and another one on Strength and Weakness, that touch on this idea, but here we dig into it.
In both ancient Chinese philosophy and in modern physics and mathematics, there is a central concept of balancing forces. In Chinese philosophy, it goes back to the yin-yang and the Bagua, “the six sides.” In modern physics and mathematics, it is a more advanced concept known as Symmetry, which is a powerful tool in proving the most difficult mathematical suppositions. One aspect of symmetry is that all particles have “anti” particles, which, when they meet, destroy each other, releasing energy and powering the starship, Enterprise.
In practical strategy, this concept arises from how our minds work. For us, the natural balance is used to simplify our perspective on complex competitive situations so that we can more easily understand them. These opposite forces of nature both compete and complement each other. Sun Tzu’s describes them as creating each other in an endless cycle.
This natural balance starts with four of the five strategic elements. Ground and Climate are considered the opposites creating the competitive environment. Command and Methods are the complementary role of the leader and the organization. Many other aspects of strategy are defined as opposites as well. The Six Benchmarks are composed of three pair of complementary opposites. The nine common competitive situations are paired with their nine standard responses. The list goes on.
The general rule is that every strength comes with a corresponding weakness and every form of emptiness creates the possibility of fullness. In judging the strength of Command, each of its five aspects can be either lacking or excessive. An overabundance of courage is foolhardiness. A lack of trust means we cannot depend on others. Too much trust means that we depend on them when we shouldn’t. Missions, Climates, Grounds, Methods, and Commander all have their own lists of balancing weaknesses and strengths.
Understanding Change
One important aspect of complementary opposites is how they drive change. Our ability to foresee the future depends on seeing the world as a natural balance. We are trained in linear thinking, which leads to "straight line" predictions. Because of our mechanistic training, when a trend continues in one direction for a period of time, we begin to think that it will always continue in that direction. The problem is that in the real world, there is always a regression toward the mean, a return to the balance. When the balance goes too far one way, the opposing force asserts itself.
Not understanding the balance of nature, we humans fall prey to all kinds of misconceptions about the future. While we cannot predict the future exactly, looking for its balancing forces dramatically improves our ability to find opportunities. The future does not flow in a straight line, but in an undulating cycle arising from the contest between opposing forces. Everything from the stock market to the weather shows a series of cycles. Many forms of opportunities can be found in positioning ourselves to take advantage of the reversing of a trend. This is the basis of contrarian thinking on stock market investment.
Extremes naturally create their opposites. When many people are pursuing the same opportunity because they see it as an easy situation, there is no longer any opportunity there. The opposite of the easy situatios, the contentious situation arises. As our herd instinct takes most people in one direction, openings arise in the opposite direction, in the areas most people are shunning. For example, since so many peple where channeled into “higher education” some of the best opportunities today are in the trades like welding and plumbing. When conditions swing too far in one direction, opportunites are found in the opposite direction.
The creation of the opposite arises naturally from the way our minds work. A simple example is the “Streisand Effect” where the attempt to stop people from seeing something increases their interest in seeing it. The name comes from the time the singer, Barbra Streisand tried to stop people from publish a picture of one of her houses. Instantly, everyone was searching for pictures and people were posting them. That is why censorship, cancelling, and banning is ultimately self-defeating. When we are denied something, we want it more, even if we don’t know why.
The stronger the trend in one direction, the shorter the life span of that trend. Gradual trends last longer than dramatic shift simply because the limited resources of the force are exhausted more quickly. Accelerating trends do not necessarily decelerate before they reverse themselves. Resources can suddenly reach their limit. This often leads to sudden crashes of the most dramatic types. This is why most crises are described, after the fact, as happening slowly at first, then suddenly.
The Source of Progress
There is one force that does not seem inherently bound by the law of complementary opposites. The growth of human knowledge falls outside the natural balance of the physical world. Human progress throughout recorded history is possible because knowledge stands apart from the balancing forces of nature. Information is not matter or energy, bound by the same laws.
Our understanding of natural forces and how to leverage them gives us new abilities. This is the basis for all progress in our lives or in a society. Each new type of technology has its limits, but the extension of our knowledge itself can go on indefinitely. The end of one cycle in learning, opens up the potential of a new cycle in a new direction. This creates the continued progress of what is known as “S-curves,” the death of one cycle leading to the birth of another.
But for every form of fulness, there is an emptiness arising from it. Complex systems isolate us from the underlying balance of forces on which our technology is based. This is how our knowledge creates its balancing force of ignorance. We embody our growing knowledge in our systems. As our systems grow in complexity, we lose track of the natural forces on which they are based. We live in the artificial world that we have created, a symbolic world that is just a map to the real world. The map is not the territory. The territory is infinitely more complex. In this symbolic world, we develop new mental models based on symbols instead of reality. Utopian systems of perfect control and predictability only seem possible because we are cut off from the underlying balance of nature.
There is an old saying that bad times create tough people. Tough people create good times. Good times create soft people. Soft people create bad times. This is the balance of knowledge and ignorance.
The Next Strategic Lesson from Solitaire
This post explains the value of the next game of solitaire we will be discussing next week, Pyramid. The value of this game is that it forces us to think about strategic opposites and foreseeing how they arise over time. These articles on solitaire will all be public because the review all the basics of practical strategy. My hope is that it will stimulate you to want to learn more.